Monday, November 30, 2015

My Investment Portfolio (November 2015)

STI ended the month at around 2850 points, losing much more than the lost ground gained last month. Markets continued to be weak, with the likely US rate hike plus weakness in China market due to investigation in the country's largest brokerages. Also in S'pore, expected weaker growth and lower corporate profits plus MAS warning on risks for local lenders doesn't help market sentiments.

For this month, I have attended the following AGMs/EGMs/briefings - Albedo, Petra Food, Sunright, Vicplas and Khong Guan Flour Milling.

For my top 30 holdings, Sarine Technologies was again a big mover downwards as the selldown continues. Old Chang Kee performed well as their half year results was good. Cash flow remains strong. Bonvests held up well against the market selldown as their investment in Cordlife is expected to yield positive results in this financial year.

I have bought the following companies from the market this month - Bonvests, City Developments, Far East Orchard, GLP, Hiap Hoe, Hotel Royal, Isetan, Koda, Parkson Retail Asia, Shangri-La Asia, Sunningdale, UIC, Yanlord and Yeo Hiap Seng. No sell trade was done.

I have accepted the following voluntary delisting/cash offers this month - Novo Group and Sunray Holdings. I have also converted the following warrants to shares - Sinarmas Land.

I have participated in the following scrip dividend schemes - Cambridge, MapleTree Commercial Trust, MapleTree Industrial Trust, MapleTree Logistics Trust and UOA.

Next month will be another slow month as it is the last month of the year and most people will be on holiday. I will continue to be defensive in my portfolio positioning, as the downturn in the market is expected to be much longer this time round. I will also reserve some cash to subscribe for the upcoming ARA rights issue.

My S'pore Stock Portfolio - Top Holdings, cash investment only (correct as at 30 November 2015)

Top 30 Holdings (Sing$ Denominated shares)
1. United Engineers
2. Bonvests   
3. Jardine C&C
4. Haw Par
5. Metro Holdings
6. Koyo International  
7. Singapura Finance
8. Hotel Grand Central
9. SGX 
10. Hotel Royal
11. Old Chang Kee      
12. The Hour Glass
13. A-REIT
14. Bukit Sembawang Estates
15. ComfortDelgro
16. Hong Leong Finance
17. Isetan
18. Hong Fok
19. Hotel Properties
20. Keppel T&T
21. Sing Investment & Finance 
22. GK Goh
23. Sarine Technologies 
24. Far East Orchard
25. Hiap Hoe
26. UOL 
28. Stamford Land
29. CapitaMall Trust
30. First REIT

Top 5 Holdings (US$ Denominated shares)
1. Jardine Strategic
2. Hong Kong Land 
3. Mandarin Oriental  
4. Dairy Farm
5. Jardine Matheson

Top Holdings (HK$ Denominated shares)
1. Fortune REIT
2. Tan Chong International

Top Holdings (Aust$ Denominated shares)
1. AV Jennings

Top 5 Holdings (CPF OA investment)
1. Keppel Corp
2. Streettracks STI ETF
3. CapitaMall Trust
5. Challenger Technologies

My Hong Kong Stock Portfolio
1. Peace Mark Holdings - Under Voluntary Liquidation

My Australia Stock Portfolio
1. GPS Alliance Holdings Limited

My Unlisted Company Portfolio
1. Automated Touchstone Machines Ltd
2. Iconic Global Limited
3. Greatronic Limited
4. General Magnetics
5. Fastech Synergy
6. Beauty China- Under Liquidation
7. Memory Devices
8. Jurong Tech - In liquidation - Compulsory winding up (Insolvency)
9. FM Holdings
10. Japan Land - In liquidation - Members' voluntary winding up
11. Zhonghui - In liquidation - Compulsory winding up (Insolvency)
12. FerroChina - Under Liquidation
13. FirstLink Investments
14. NEL Group
15. Jets Technics
16. Guangzhao Industrial Forest - In liquidation - Compulsory winding up (Insolvency)
17. Hongwei Technologies Limited (In Provisional Liquidation)
18. FDS Networks Group
19. Aussino Group - In liquidation - Creditors' voluntary winding up
20. China Oilfield Technology

My Unit Trust Portfolio:



Blogger Hai Lu said...

Hi ghchua, would you mind share some infor for the Vicplas agm. Wanted to go as a shareholder but could not make it.
Always enjoyed your blog, great works! & happy holiday!

2:41 AM  
Blogger ghchua said...

Hi Hai Lu,

The take home message I have for Vicplas AGM is that they are trying to diversify away from Telefex for the medical devices segment. As you might have noticed from their announcements, they have sign agreements with Valtronic and Xentiq recently and these are moves to explore new business. They are also expanding into China to cope with increase in orders. Having said that, the medical devices segment will still have further more room to go as they have to increase their revenue to become profitable as it is still loss making at this moment.

For pipes and pipe fitting business, this year will be slow due to slowdown in construction in S'pore. They are exploring expansion to other countries but nothing is concrete at this moment.

All in, I think the company has a good cash position and with little debt. But I don't think they will do better this year as the pipes and pipe fitting business is experiencing slowdown and their medical devices segment is still very much dependent on Telefex. They should be able to give some dividends again this year though, as their cash flow is quite good.

6:53 PM  
Blogger Hai Lu said...

Thanks so much for detailed reply ghchua!
I am not very worried about their piping busniess as this part was quite stable and improving in the long run for the past like 10 years. I am more interested in whether they can turn around their medical segment after they ceased their Singapore operation and moved manufacturing to China.
Lastest result shown their med segment has improved a lot recently while they were still bearing some setup costs and under-utinisation of their factory. I hope this segment will be their growth driver in future (which is very feasable as their med segment was quite profitable in 2011s and 2012s and med is a huge business especially in the aging China). It was also glad to hear that company hinted consistant dividend paying.
The major worry i have is the increasing china manpower cost and China economy slow down.
Just exchange some thoughts, cheers and happy hunting :)

4:29 AM  
Blogger Everlearning said...

Hi ghchua,

Wishing you and your loved ones a blessed Christmas and a good year in 2016. May we find real meaning in lives with joys and thanksgivings.

Thanks for writing your blog faithfully month after month. Although this year, I am not much into investing, I still enjoy reading your blog:keeping me informed of the challenges and changes in the SGX market.

I don't know how my investment is going to pan out, with so much uncertainties going on. At times like these, I think, inaction or suspension seems appropriate. Anyway, hear you next year in a week's time with your inspiring insights!

10:26 PM  
Blogger ghchua said...

Hi Everlearning,

Merry Christmas to you!

Indeed, this had been a tough year for most investors, and even tougher for full-time investors like me with no other income source except from our investments. However, it is during these tough times that one discovers oneself and allows one to keep focus on the big picture of investing for long term rather than letting short term market noises affect you.

Inaction might be one of the strategies of riding over these tough times. However, I believe in consistently buying into the market during good and bad times, thereby participating in the long term rewards of staying invested at all times.

12:17 AM  
Blogger John Smith said...

Hi ghchua. You have an interesting portfolio with many counters having long back stories.

Anyway. Just wanted to ask you what potential value unlocking do you see with UIC. It is not such a straightforward case as UIC Sp Land as Gokongwei is in the picture.

Any thoughts on possible end games? Are WCY and GKW friend or foe. Notice both had been 'creeping' up till 2014 but since then only WCY has continued.

6:41 AM  
Blogger ghchua said...

Hi John,

For UIC, I am looking at two possible end game plays.

1. Delisting offer due to insufficient free float. WCY has an upper hand now since he and his related parties (i.e. UOL, Haw Par etc) now owns more stake in the company than GKW. Whether GKW accepts the offer or not when a delisting offer came does not matter to me as it might be due to free float problem as their current free float is less than 15% and getting closer to the 10% mark to stay listed as WCY and related parties keep on buying from the market and also due to the scrip dividend scheme whereby minority interests had been progressively reduced throughout the years.

2. General offer by UOL. UOL raising its stake to above 50% by buying from the market and also buying Haw Par's stake in UIC, thereby triggering a general offer. UOL will get to consolidate all of UIC’s property assets into their books. It is an attractive proposition for UOL shareholders as UIC’s assets are mostly investment grade commercial properties and hotels. This will also make UOL as one of the largest real estate company in the region. Currently, UIC is only accounted as an associated company in UOL's balance sheet.

8:26 AM  
Blogger John Smith said...

thanks for your reply ghchua... you certainly are very experienced in the market.

do you miss the old days in the market when the stories and not just the returns or price action was much more interesting?

9:38 AM  
Blogger ghchua said...

Hi John,

I guess for every stock, there is a story behind it and if one follows the company for a while, they should be able to stay patient and not to be affected by short term price action.

For the current market, I agree that there are a lot of short term investors and they are mostly looking at price action and returns. It is for this reason that I choose to be different and focus on the companies itself rather than share price movements. I also did not compute my portfolio returns as I believe that if I have a good process in place, the rest will fall in place automatically.

7:37 PM  
Blogger Chong said...

Hi ghchua,

I saw that you have accepted the cash offer of Sunray. May I know did you send in the Form for Acceptance and Transfer form (FAT) together with your share certificate by post or went down personally to Har Paw Centre? I am thinking of making a trip down personally but wonder if they will accept it this way. Also there is a witness section that needs to be filled up in the FAT and wonders if the person at Har Paw Centre can be the witness?

Appreciate your advice.


5:37 PM  
Blogger ghchua said...

Hi Chong,

Yes, I went down to the lawyer office to submit the form. You need to get a witness to sign the form. I don't see any reason why the person from the lawyer's office cannot be a witness.

11:21 PM  

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A self-directed investor, looking to invest for retirement needs and bypass all those expensive financial planners/insurance agents. Investing is fun, profitable or most important of all, knowledge gained is useful for the rest of your life!

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